Modelli

Ensemble LR + RF + LightGBM + XGBoost + Elo + NN

ROI modello è un indicatore simulato: usalo con CLV e win-rate reale, non come PnL bookmaker diretto.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-05-25

0.6437

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_gg

all · 2026-05-25

0.6898

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_ou

all · 2026-05-25

0.6872

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-05-25

1.0176

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-05-19

0.6378

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_gg

all · 2026-05-19

0.6898

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_ou

all · 2026-05-19

0.6871

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-05-19

1.0164

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-05-11

0.6384

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_gg

all · 2026-05-11

0.6895

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_ou

all · 2026-05-11

0.6872

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-05-11

1.0155

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

🎾

ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-05-06

0.6397

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_gg

all · 2026-05-06

0.6895

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_ou

all · 2026-05-06

0.6875

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-05-06

1.0148

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-27

0.6388

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-27

1.0159

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-27

0.7006

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-27

1.2751

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-27

0.6992

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-27

1.3189

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-27

0.6801

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-27

1.3176

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-26

0.7194

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-26

1.3592

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-26

0.6816

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-26

0.6980

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-26

1.4023

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-26

0.7002

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-26

1.3622

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_tennis

all · 2026-04-26

0.7014

Log Loss (base 0.693)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-26

1.4004

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

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ensemble_calcio

all · 2026-04-26

1.3631

Log Loss (base 1.099)

—

Brier

—

ROI sim.

Baseline Reale (30/60/90 giorni)

30 giorni

Win rate: 0.0%

Settled: 0

ROI: 0.0%

60 giorni

Win rate: 0.0%

Settled: 0

ROI: 0.0%

90 giorni

Win rate: 0.0%

Settled: 0

ROI: 0.0%

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Feature Importance — calcio (LightGBM SHAP)

elo_diff

0.1541

elo_away

0.1131

goals_for_home_w5

0.1082

goals_for_away_w5

0.1080

goals_against_away_w5

0.1022

form_home_w10

0.0955

goals_against_home_w5

0.0949

elo_home

0.0946

form_away_w10

0.0799

rest_days_home

0.0670

rest_days_away

0.0626

form_away_w5

0.0516

congestion_home_w14

0.0441

form_home_w5

0.0375

streak_away

0.0374

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Feature Importance — tennis (LightGBM SHAP)

elo_surface_away

0.4007

elo_surface_home

0.3699

rank_diff

0.3669

winrate_surface_away_w20

0.1799

winrate_surface_home_w20

0.1785

rank_away

0.1125

elo_diff_global

0.0991

elo_global_away

0.0985

rank_home

0.0699

elo_diff_surface

0.0598

elo_global_home

0.0577

winrate_recent_home_w10

0.0438

winrate_recent_away_w10

0.0317

fatigue_away_w7

0.0246

fatigue_home_w7

0.0167

Selezione conservativa — calcio

holdout: 791 · 2026-05-25

home_win

thr 0.62

prec 70.0%

cov 12.6%

away_win

thr 0.62

prec 62.5%

cov 3.0%

Selezione conservativa — tennis

holdout: 1708 · 2026-05-25

home_win

thr 0.78

prec 83.7%

cov 5.0%

away_win

thr 0.80

prec 88.3%

cov 3.5%